Cold War - Enquiry 6 The End of the Cold War (1985-1991)

Jose Napoleon Duarte elected in El Salvador

Mar 25, 1984

• elected during Salvadoran Civil War (army vs FMLN - coalition of leftist guerrilla groups with Soviet and Cuban support)
• given $6mil by US during his campaign
• tried to limit power of the army but atrocities were committed against rural 'insurgents'
• FMLN fought to destroy army's death squads => USA (under Reagan and Bush) funded government and military assistance

Economic issues of the Brezhnev era by 1985

1985

1980s: US has 11x as many computers and 9x as many telephones as USSR
1972 and 1975: crop failures => food shortages
1964-85: 25% of Soviet GNP spent on military and space race vs US spending 5%
Ninth and Tenth Five-Year Plans (1971-80) failed to increase availability of consumer goods
Didn't capitalise on West's desperation for oil in 1970s
Stagnation of living standards caused poor morale and productivity
Some of Brezhnev's policies to promote market economics were blocked by fundamentalists

Causes of weak Soviet economy by 1985

1985

Alcoholism promoted poor productivity
Lack of foreign investment
American embargos on grain
State-controlled business
Inflation
Worker discontent
Cost of Afghanistan, supporting MPLA in Angola, and helping Ethiopia
Spending to support satellite states
Increased military spending after SDI announced
USSR alienated some E.European countries by reducing cheap exports of fuel and raw materials
Comecon made obselete by June 1988: EU Commission is allowed to make trade agreements with Comecon states

US arms deal with Iran

Period: 1985 to 1986

• money from arms deal was used to supply the Contras
• during arms embargo on Iran => illegal arms deal
• from 1985-86, the US supplied over 2.6k arms to Iran, mostly antitank missiles, SAMs

Mikhail Gorbachev becomes leader of the USSR

Mar 11, 1985

Leonid Brezhnev =>Yuri Andropov => Konstantin Chernenko => Mikhail Gorbachev

Gorbachev's 'New Thinking'

Mar 11, 1985

• Target alcohol: prices increased on win, beer, vodka; time and places able to sell alcohol restricted => arrests for public drunkenness
• Perestroika: 'restructuring' => planning was to be decentralised and managers given limited self-management BUT state-controlled prices (=> higher prices and lower living standards initially)
• Glasnost: 'openness' => re-examine Soviet history and allow open debates including criticism of the USSR
• International political stability will help the economy

US gives economic aid to Contras

Aug 27, 1985

• $27mil humanitarian aid
• CIA and Department of Defence were NOT allowed to deliver it (history of covertly supplying Contras)

Nicaraguan Humanitarian Assistance Office

Aug 30, 1985

• created to deliver humanitarian aid to Contras

Geneva Summit 19-21 Nov

Nov 19, 1985

• covered by 3k journalists as first Reagan-Gorbachev summit
• USA and USSR would cut offensive nukes by 50%
• plans to limit and possibly remove medium-range missiles
• work to end nuclear proliferation
• "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought" - joint Reagan-Gorbachev statement
• no concrete agreements
• Reagan's SDI plan would be a topic of tension in the future

Effect of 'New Thinking'

1986

Perestroika: initial decrease in living standards but a small entrepreneurial class benefitted BUT most employees were state-employed and wages didn't match inflation => high food prices
Glasnost: increased open criticism of Soviet agricultural collectivisation => Gorbachev removed it and farmers paid tax on their products => demand for the same in industry and consumer goods
Gorbachev had to deal with the corrupt Soviet system and apparatchiks => reformed elections to give some choice

Polish political shift

Period: 1986 to Aug 24, 1989

• Sep '86: Amnesty for Solidarity, ML removed
• '88: Economic downturn => 200% rise in food prices => protesters use glasnost to protest
• Feb '89: Senate formed; lower house Sejm had 35% elected seats
• Apr '89: Solidarity legalised
• Jun '89: Solidarity won 92% Senate seats + 99% of Diet (parliament) seats it was could compete for
• 24 Aug '89: Coalition gov't formed with Communists only holding 4 seats
• Poland stayed in Warsaw Pact; 4 Communist minsters controlled key areas e.g., MoD

Moscow's “trust administration” of Uzbekistan

Period: 1986 to 1989

• krasnyi desant campaign: 18,000 Uzbek Communist Party members dismissed, replaced by ethnic Russians => caused rising nationalism and agitation

Chernobyl disaster

Apr 26, 1986

Initially covered up by Soviet press
Sweden recorded high radiation levels in Ukraine
USSR admitted to the disaster
Greatly influenced Glasnost in 1988

Private aid for Contras exposed

Oct 5, 1986

• plane loaded with supplies for the Contras, financed by private benefactors, was shot down by Nicaraguan soldiers
• onboard were weapons and other lethal supplies and 3 Americans
• Reagan's admin denied knowledge of private aid

Reykjavik Summit 11-12 Oct

Oct 11, 1986

• exchanged ideas about humanitarian issues and human rights
• both sides wanted disarmament
• both parties gained insight into priorities of other side and drafts were made for future summits
• no formal agreements
• Gorbachev wouldn't discuss disarmament if Regan wouldn't give up SDI
• "Gorbachev had brought me to Iceland with one purpose: to kill the Strategic Defence Initiative"; "I was very disappointed - and very angry" - statement from Reagan

US gives economic aid to Contras

Oct 17, 1986

$100mil voted by Congress

Soviet reduction aid to Angola

Dec 1, 1986

• date unknown
• announced by Gorbachev
• reduce economic aid to MPLA in Angola to improve relations with US
• HOWEVER did give $1bn in arms to MPLA since USA still supported UNITA

Trouble in Kazakhstan

Dec 16, 1986

• 1986: Gorbachev replaced ethnic Kazakh leader with Russian => seen as humiliating for population
• riots broke out on December 16 => thousands arrested

Amnesty law in El Salvador

1987

• intended to release those falsely accused from prison
• BUT also absolved members of the army's death squads
• caused public unrest and anger

Congress ceases all 'non-lethal' Contras aid

1987

• after the discovery of private resupply efforts orchestrated by the National Security Council and Oliver North

PDR of Ethiopia est.

Feb 22, 1987

• established by Mengistu Haile Mariam
• received assistance from Cuba (e.g., 300 medical personnel in 1980s)
• famine and drought economic assistance was often criticised for where it went to
• armed resistance from Eritrean nationalists who wanted independence

USSR encourages MPLA to act

Sep 1, 1987

• exact date unknown
• Gorbachev encouraged MPLA to launch a major offensive against UNITA
• South Africa responded with its own counter-offensive => caused Cuba to send 10,000 troops to Angola without Soviet approval

Washington Summit 8-10 Dec

Dec 8, 1987

• Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty signed: = all ballistic and cruise missiles of range up to 5500km were banned (first ever removal of entire class of nukes and allowed checks to verify removal) = USSR didn't make it conditional on US removing SDI (knew it wasn't achievable) = USSR didn't demand to keep 100 SS-20s to defend itself from China = USSR didn't make Britain and France's nukes part of the deal
• Gorbachev would withdraw troops from Afghanistan

Alfredo Cristiani is elected in El S

1988

• FMLN continue fighting against government
• US saw neither side was winning and was becoming more uncomfortable with supporting Salvadoran army => pushed for truce

Hungarian political shift

Period: 1988 to Mar 25, 1990

• Poor economic conditions => Kadar resigns in '88
• Miklos Nemeth negotiates 1bn DM loan from FRG
• 24 Nov '88: Nemeth = PM
• Feb '89: want multi-party state
• Mar: Gorbachev agrees IF Hungarian Socialist Worker Party (HSWP) dominate
• 2 May '89: HSWP remove fence on border with Austria
• Jun '89: Gov't and opposition agree to free elections in '90
• Sep '89: Hungary opens border to FRG
• '90: HSWP get <11% of seats
• Socialists return in '94 (Free Democrats) and were most popular party in '96

Moldovan political shift

Period: 1988 to Aug 31, 1990

• Democratic Movement of Moldavia formed in 1988 to revive culture
• May 1989: Popular Front of Moldova formed
• Feb-Mar 1990: elections saw Popular Front + independent candidates win majority over Communist Party
• 31 Aug 1990: Moldovan made official language

Retreat from Afghanistan announced

Feb 1, 1988

• Announced by Gorbachev
• (date unknown)
• $20bn spent in Afghanistan

Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh

Period: Feb 20, 1988 to Jan 19, 1989

• 20 Feb '88: NK votes union with Armenia => vetoed by Gorbachev => anti-Armenian riots => both leaders removed
• Karabakh Committee formed for union with Armenia => Jul '88: Popular Front of Azerbaijan formed
• Jul '88: NK placed under control of Moscow => given back to Azerbaijan
• Armenia ignores Moscow and integrates NK => Azerbaijan blockades Armenian rail + 91 Armenians killed in Baku
• 19 Jan '89: APF take CP buildings => 26k Soviet troops invade and kill 130
• Alienation => burn CP cards

S.African peace negotiations with Angola

May 1, 1988

• exact date unknown
• agrees to negotiate with Angola to prevent the destabilisation of its regime due to pressure from the African National Congress

Withdrawal of USSR from Afghanistan

Period: May 15, 1988 to Feb 15, 1989

1982: USSR knew they couldn't win due to US support of the Mujahideen, but couldn't leave because of the Brezhnev Doctrine
1985: Gorbachev removes the Brezhnev Doctrine
February 1988: Gorbachev announces the USSR would withdraw from Afghanistan
15 February 1989: last Soviet troops leave Afghanistan

Moscow Summit 29 May - 3 June

May 29, 1988

• 7 agreements signed about cultural exchanges between the US and USSR e.g. fishing rights + student exchanges
• Reagan met the Russian people - "No [the USSR is not an evil empire]. That was another time, another era"
• believed to about START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) to limit nukes to 5k on each side as discussed at Geneva
• content of the summit was relatively unimportant and big things were expected since it was Reagan's last year in office
• still disagreements about SDI and ABMs

Peace in Angola

Dec 1, 1988

• exact date unknown
• agreed in New York
• Cuba withdrew its troops

Belarus political shift

1989

• 1988: Belarus PF est. as political and cultural movement
• discovery of mass graves out capital Minsk of those executed by Soviet secret police during Stalin added momentum

Cuba's economic shift

1989

• could no longer rely on Soviet economic support when it collapsed => had to restructure
• Cuba diversified trading partners e.g., China, Europe, and Canada
• opened Cuba to tourism
• introduction of hard currency resulted in Cuba needing to withdraw from countries it supported to focus on its social programmes

Romanian political shift

Period: 1989 to May 20, 1990

• Nicolae Ceausescu was known for his corruption => caused economic hardships in 1989
• Gorbachev approved Ceausescu's removal if Communism remained dominant
• Nov '89: Riots broke out in Timisoara and Ceausescu fled the capital
• 22 Dec '89: National Salvation Front formed
• Ceausescu was captured and executed on 25 Dec '89
• 20 May 1990: National Salvation Front (coalition) won majority in elections

Albanian political shift

Period: 1989 to 1992

• Stalinist regime under Enver Hoxha then Ramiz Alia
• 1989: Alia announces perestroika reforms => riots broke out in capital (Tirana) => further economic reforms including decentralisation
• 1991 and 1992: elections held; by 1992 the anti-Communist Democratic Party had the most seats

Ukrainian political shift

Period: 1989 to Mar 4, 1990

• 1989: Ukrainian Popular Front (Rukh) formed
• 4 Mar 1990: elections => Communists won but Rukh was the first legal opposition party to stand and won 26% of seats

George Bush becomes US President

Jan 20, 1989

• Elected in November 1988
• United with Gorbachev in securing renewed detente
• Wanted to improve international stability to keep Gorbachev and US-USSR relations strong
• Some of Bush's advisors (e.g., Condoleezza Rice) were fearful that Gorbachev's 'New Thinking' could be a cover up to build Soviet power

Independence calls in Georgia

Apr 7, 1989

• 100k people demand independence in front of Communist Party HQ
• 7-8 Apr 1989: Soviet troops sent to Tbilisi => 19 people killed and 200+ wounded
• led to radicalisation of Georgian politics

Austro-Hungarian fence removed

May 2, 1989

George Bush visits Poland

Jul 9, 1989

Told speech-writers "I don't want my speeches to sound inflammatory or provocative" => example of Bush attempting to maintain friendly relations with Gorbachev and not damage his image

George Bush visits Hungary

Jul 11, 1989

11-13 July 1989
Told speech-writers "I don't want my speeches to sound inflammatory or provocative" => example of Bush attempting to maintain friendly relations with Gorbachev and not damage his image

Czechoslovak political shift

Period: Aug 21, 1989 to Dec 28, 1989

• Vaclav Havel released in 1983
• Demonstrations inspired by Havel's Charter 77 (1977) (criticised gov't)
• ~50% rivers in Slovakia polluted, >75% well water unsuitable, forests dying, respiratory illnesses in children
• PM Ladislav Adamec announced minor economic reforms => mass demonstration on 21 August in Prague (Velvet Revolution)
• 9 Nov: B.Wall
• 17 Nov: police attack and beat students in protest
• 19 Nov: Civic Forum formed by Havel => Adamec resigns
• 28 Dec '89: Havel elected President

New Polish gov't

Aug 24, 1989

• 24 Aug '89: Coalition gov't formed with Communists only holding 4 seats
• Poland stayed in Warsaw Pact; 4 Communist minsters controlled key areas e.g., MoD

GDR political shift

Period: Sep 11, 1989 to Dec 3, 1989

• Sep '89: 60k GDR citizens travel through Hungary to FRG + 22k to Austria
• lack of reforms under Honecker => 18 Oct: Egon Krenz + Politburo forcibly replace Honecker
• Nov: USSR didn't offer economic aid to GDR (1985: 5.2% growth => 2.8% by 1989)
• 5 Nov: proposed travel relaxation => criticism for too limited => entire Politburo resigns
• 9 Nov: B.Wall falls
• 1 Dec: removed constitutional clause for Communist dominance in gov't
• 3 Dec: Krenz resigns => calls for reunification with FRG

Collapse of the Berlin Wall

Nov 9, 1989

• press conference announced new policy to allow free travel to FRG
• gov't representative had little time to read notes and said the policy would be in force immediately instead of 10 Nov when post offices would be ready
• thousands of people swarmed the wall and outnumbered the guards => Berlin Wall fell

Bulgarian political shift

Period: Nov 9, 1989 to Jun 10, 1990

• Jul '89: FM Petar Mladenov tells Gorbachev a 'change of direction' is needed
• 9 Nov '89: Todor Zhivkov forcibly removed by Gorbachev due to nepotism, cronyism, expulsion of 200k Turks under 'Bulgarianisation' policy
• Free elections promised for 1990
• Bulgarian Communist Party => Bulgarian Socialist Party
• 10 Jun '90: elections result in victory for BSP
• BSP entered coalition in '92
• Dec '94: BSP narrowly won majority but economic crisis in 1996-97 caused their defeat in election

German reunification

Period: Nov 9, 1989 to Oct 3, 1991

• 9 Nov '89: Berlin Wall falls
• Krenz is replaced by Hans Modrow
• Mar '90: free elections => Alliance for Germany coalition won majority
• 12 Apr: Gov't announce desire to reunify
• USA, GBR, FRA, USSR all initially resist reunification
• Helmut Kohl (FRG) was also hesitant until he saw the public support for the plan => FRG gave loans to USSR and convinced US that GDR could be useful in NATO and EEC
• 14 Feb: 2+4 talks
• 12 Sep: agreement reached
• 3 Oct 1991: two Germanys reunified

New Romanian gov't

Dec 25, 1989

• Ceausescu captured and executed on 25 Dec 1989
• National Salvation Front (coalition) was formed and won majority in elections

Yugoslav political shift

1990

• had its own road to socialism but still suffered socioeconomic issues => 300% inflation
• Jan 1990: multi-party elections held => nationalists elected in every state
• Gradually dismembered into many different states such as Croatia and Bosnia

New gov't in Yugoslavia

Jan 1, 1990

Jan 1990: multi-party elections held => nationalists elected in every state => Yugoslavia broken up along federal lines

Nicaraguan political shift

Feb 25, 1990

• 1980s: Contras experienced decrease in American funding due to shift in policy away from central America => agree to ceasefire with Sandinistas and elections to be held on 25 February 1990
• 14 anti-Sandinista parties form coalition under US guidance with Violeta Chamorro as the leader
• Chamorro's coalition was given $1mil from the US and also aid from Venezuela
• Chamorro won the election despite the Sandinistas being expected to win

US gives $300mil to Nicaragua

Period: Feb 26, 1990 to 1992

Russian political shift

Mar 4, 1990

• Elections in Mar-Apr 1990 gave majority to reformers
• Boris Yeltsin becomes emerging and prominent Russian politician => voted Chairman of the Congress of People's Deputies
• 12 June 1990: Congress declares its sovereignty

Lithuanian independence

Mar 11, 1990

• elections on 24 Feb 1990 => pro-independence candidates won 65% of seats
• declared independence on 11 March

New Hungarian gov't

Mar 25, 1990

• 25 Mar 1990: Hungarian Socialist Worker's Party get <11% of seats and don't even get into the coalition gov't => victory for Hungarian Democratic Forum
• Socialists return in '94 (Free Democrats) and were most popular party in '96

Estonian independence

Mar 30, 1990

• 18 Mar 1990: elections held => pro-independence Popular Front won the most seats
• 30 March 1990: period of transition declared to restore full independence
• 20 August 1991: full independence restored

Soviet economic blockade of Lithuania

Period: Apr 18, 1990 to Jul 2, 1990

• in response to independence declared in March 1990
• caused losses of 500mil roubles (1.5% of Lithuania's GNP)
• lasted from 18 April - 2 July 1990

Latvian independence

May 4, 1990

• 18 Mar 1990: elections held in Latvia => Popular Front won 68% of seats
• independence declared on 4 May 1990

New Romanian gov't

May 20, 1990

• 20 May 1990: National Salvation Front won elections and formed coalition government

New Romanian gov't

May 20, 1990

National Salvation Font (FSN)

New Bulgrian gov't

Jun 10, 1990

• 10 Jun '90: elections result in victory for Bulgarian Socialist Party

Russia declares its sovereignty

Jun 12, 1990

Congress declares its sovereignty

Moldova declares sovereignty

Jun 23, 1990

January Events in Lithuania

Jan 11, 1991

• 11-13 Jan 1991
• Soviet troops entered Lithuania and killed 14 people, 140+ injured
• Soviets forced to withdraw after public protests

The Barricades in Latvia

Jan 13, 1991

• 13-27 Jan 1991
• Soviet troops attempted to take back Riga (capital of Latvia) => caused people to build barricades in defence
• 7 killed and 14 wounded
• Soviets forced to withdraw after public protests

Union Treaty referendum

Mar 17, 1991

• referendum for 'renewed federation' between 'equal sovereign republics'
• boycotted in Baltics, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia
• supported by 74% of voters where it was voted on

Defeat of Mengistu in Ethiopia

May 1, 1991

• 1989: USSR withdrawing support due to its own collapse
• 1989-1991: military defeats and advancing armed opposition
• May 1991: Mengistu fled to Zimbabwe => Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front took power with US aid (ignored Marxist origins and their disregard for liberal democracy)

START is signed

Jul 31, 1991

• Gorbachev and Bush
• Renegotiate number of weapons to be destroyed after 1980s arms race due to SDI

Soviet coup of 1991

Aug 18, 1991

• 18-19 August
• Communist hardliners rebelling against Gorbachev's Union Treaty
• Gorbachev was on holiday in Crimea => arrested
• Boris Yeltsin rallied public against the coup => became hero
• all 9 republics who initially agreed the Union Treaty abandoned the plan
• Boris Yeltsin replaced Gorbachev

USA ends Nicaraguan economic aid

1992

• crippled economy after 11 years of civil war
• superstition the Sandinistas remained in control of the economy

Chapultepec Peace Accords, El Salvador

Jan 16, 1992

• ended the Salvadoran civil war
• established FMLN as official party
• UN oversaw elections in 1994