Probability of Double Dip Recession in the Media

Timeline created by edo in Business

Timeline Text view

Event Date:	Event Title:	Event Description:
02/26/2010	"Unlikely" (World bankl president)	World Bank President Robert Zoellick on Economic Times:"The world economy is no longer staring into the abyss but we're definitely not out of the woods by any means," Zoellick told a meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee. "I don't believe a double-dip is likely but the pace of recovery is going to be quite uncertain."
04/14/2010	Soros: "risk of a double dip"	Bloomberg: “The reluctance of market to provide credit-acceptable interest rates may lead to fiscal constrains which come too soon,” Soros told reporters today in Venice, Italy. “Recovery has been the result of substantial support to the financial system and significant fiscal stimulus. If we pull it too fast, then there is a risk of a double dip.”
06/03/2010	"1 in 8" (12.5%) (Mark Zandi, Moody's)	This estimate was given retroactively on 26 Aug 2010, Zandi told Bloomberg TV: "“I put it that 1 in 3 right now. If you’d ask me 4-8 weeks ago, I would have said 1 in 4, 12 weeks ago, 1 and 5. So it is rising uncomfortably high."
06/26/2010	0% (Credit Suisse)	Barron's: "The zero-probability reading on the six-month risk of recession by the Credit Suisse model indicates the money-supply measures are still crying wolf. "
07/07/2010	"Unlikely" (Credit Suisse)	Bloomberg: July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Expectations for a “double-dip” recession are “over pessimistic” and profit growth is likely to help Asian stocks rebound in the second half of this year, Credit Suisse Group AG’s private banking unit said.
07/16/2010	"Virtually Assured" (ECRI interpreted in Zero Hedge )	ECRI: "Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." This quote is from July 16 but the reading it shows is from July 9.
07/19/2010	66.6% (David Rosenberg, based on ECRI)	Davide Rosenberg in Globe and Mail: David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., who has made that point, says that after controlling for volatility, “our models say that ECRI is now saying two out of three chance for a double dip.”
08/01/2010	Greenspan mentions DDR
08/05/2010	25% (El-Erian)	Bloomberg
08/06/2010	No DDR (Obama)
08/12/2010	25%-30% Goldman Sachs	http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-12/goldman-sachs-sees-25-to-30-odds-of-u-s-double-dip-recession.html
08/12/2010	>50% (Schiller)	Schiller
08/16/2010	Rosenberg: >50%
08/17/2010	>40% (Roubini)
08/19/2010	No DDR (Caterpillar CEO)
08/24/2010	Stiglitz: Euro DDR
08/25/2010	No DDR (Ford Americas President)
08/26/2010	30% to 60% (Paul Nolte, Dearborn Partners)	Market Watch editorial
08/26/2010	"1 in 3" (Mark Zandi, Moody)
08/27/2010	"Imminent" (Robert Schiller, WSJ)	WSJ Big Interview